{"id":746,"date":"2005-12-22T10:39:52","date_gmt":"2005-12-22T09:39:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.larshvidberg.dk\/?p=685"},"modified":"2005-12-22T10:39:52","modified_gmt":"2005-12-22T09:39:52","slug":"studehandler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.whiteberg.dk\/?p=746","title":{"rendered":"Studehandler"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mere om valget i Irak: Iraq The Model<\/strong> rapporterer om en Bagdad-for-Kirkuk<\/a> handel mellem kurdiske politikere og UIA. Kirkuk er en meget vigtig by p\u00e5 gr\u00e6nsen til Kurdistan, men byen er etnisk delt og det er centralt for kurderne at kunne h\u00e6vde kontrollen over de n\u00e6rliggende oliefelter, for at kunne skabe et selvst\u00e6ndigt Kurdistan. De kurdiske partier har da ogs\u00e5 f\u00e5et de tilstr\u00e6kkelige 51% af stemmerne i Kirkuk, bl.a. fordi de f\u00e5 dage f\u00f8r valget pludeslig kunne skrive 200.000 nye kurdere p\u00e5 listerne over stemmeberettigede. Stemmelisterne bygger som bekendt p\u00e5 de gamle rationeringskort og er derfor for\u00e6ldede, men et pludseligt boost p\u00e5 200.000 virker nu alligevel p\u00e5faldende belejligt. Men den ene h\u00e5nd vasker den anden, og brokker kurderne sig ikke over valget i Bagdad, der har givet uforholdsm\u00e6ssigt h\u00f8je<\/a> stemmetal til UIA, s\u00e5 brokker shiaerne sig nok ikke over at Kirkuk g\u00e5r til kurderne.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 here’s the deal if\u00f8lge Mohammed:<\/p>\n

I\u2019m afraid the Baghdad-for-Kirkuk deal is done now and there\u2019s nothing I can think of to reverse the new reality which was forced via a democratic practice. Right now we\u2019re in facing a big crisis that leaves us before two possibilities; either the Sunni agree to be part of the government and we get a parliament with 200 Islamist members (Sunni and She\u2019at) in the face of 75 secular members, 50 of them are Kurds who won\u2019t care much about this parliament or the rest of the country since they have their own parliament and government in Kurdistan (which is going to include Kirkuk in the near future of course).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Lyse fremtidsudsigter for Irak, det m\u00e5 man sige. Men bem\u00e6rk, at UIA f\u00f8r valget ikke var projicerede til at f\u00e5 mere end 70-90 mandater<\/a>, men har alts\u00e5 via en handel med kurderne (muligvis, dette er spekulation) tiltusket sig over halvdelen af de samlede pladser i parlamentet, prim\u00e6rt p\u00e5 bekostning af de sekul\u00e6re shia og sunni-partier.<\/p>\n

Mohammed konkluderer:<\/p>\n

All they wanted and all they knew they were able to get was 33% of the seats which can give them the veto right in the parliament but the Baghdad-for-Kirkuk deal with the Kurds allowed both of them to get the at least the 51% majority, each in his region of interest.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

S\u00e5dan st\u00e5r resultatet, tilsyneladende. Men hvor meget er demokratiets vilk\u00e5r, og hvor meget skyldes mere luskede procedurer?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mere om valget i Irak: Iraq The Model rapporterer om en Bagdad-for-Kirkuk handel mellem kurdiske politikere og UIA. Kirkuk er en meget vigtig by p\u00e5 gr\u00e6nsen til Kurdistan, men byen er etnisk delt og det er centralt for kurderne at kunne h\u00e6vde kontrollen over de n\u00e6rliggende oliefelter, for at kunne skabe et selvst\u00e6ndigt Kurdistan. De … L\u00e6s mere Studehandler<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[164],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.whiteberg.dk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/746"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.whiteberg.dk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.whiteberg.dk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.whiteberg.dk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.whiteberg.dk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=746"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.whiteberg.dk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/746\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.whiteberg.dk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=746"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.whiteberg.dk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=746"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.whiteberg.dk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=746"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}